Prediction markets, indexed.
Micah reads 9,407 contracts across 9 exchanges and turns each topic into one 0–100 reading you can watch, compare and question.
✦ MICAH BRIEF · TUE, OCT 27UPDATED 15:02 UTC
“Will Ukraine target Moscow…” rose 38 points.
The three biggest contract moves since yesterday. Select one for what it means.
Global War Index · “Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 27, 2026” 61% → 99%▲ 38House Index · “Will Democratic win the House race for NJ-04? - Rachel Peace” 8% → 20%▲ 12Global War Index · “Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30” 25% → 16%▼ 8.5
✦ Ask Micah about today Visual findings
Three things markets are saying
01 · BIGGEST MOVE✦ ASK WHY →“Will Ukraine target Moscow…” rose 38 points.“Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 27, 2026” rose 38 pts since yesterday.NOWYESTERDAY99%from 61%02 · EXCHANGE GAP✦ ASK WHY →Same question, 2.5 points apart.France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026 · deep bookPOLYMARKET 2%KALSHI 4%2.5pt03 · RISK MAP✦ ASK WHY →Global risk is low, but uneven.Gaza reads 93; most of the world sits under 20.
Important now
Markets in motion
GEOPOLITICS · 7 DAYS+ FollowTraders priced France down 21 points.France ▼ 21.2 · Israel ▼ 18.4 · Ukraine ▲ 9.0 · 7 daysGlobal War Index8.5▼ 0.9Open the Global War Index →MARKETS · 24 HOURS+ FollowBitcoin bulls came back.24H50 = BALANCEDNOWBitcoin Index46.1▲ 0.3Open the Markets Index →POLITICS · NOV 3+ Follow13 seats decide the Senate.DEM 45 SAFE51GOP 42 SAFEGOP Senate control38%▼ 0.7Open Balance of Power →
Evidence · last 24 hours
Contracts that moved most
Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 27, 2026?▲ 38Polymarket ↗ · 61% → 99%Will Democratic win the House race for NJ-04? - Rachel Peace▲ 12Kalshi ↗ · 8% → 20%Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?▼ 8.5Polymarket ↗ · 25% → 16%Will the Democratic Party win the CO-05 House seat?▲ 8.0Polymarket ↗ · 33% → 41%Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?▲ 7.5Polymarket ↗ · 88% → 95%